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Here are the chances of the plane crashing and your odds of dying in a plane crash, based on data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and National Transportation Safety Board between 2015 and 2020.
In short, the odds of a plane crashing are 0.000001% and you have a 1 in 816,545,929 chance of dying in a plane crash
Based on statistics from 2015 to 2020, if you were to board any flight during the year, you’d have about a 1 in 260,256 chance of simply being in an accident (which includes any plane crashes), and you being unharmed, injured, or killed.
But what are your odds of dying in a plane crash?
What is your specific chance of dying in a plane crash?
The chance of you, specifically, dying in a plane crash is about 1 in 816,545,929.
Risk, like many other things, is relative. By comparison to any other mass mode of transportation, airlines are by far the safest way to travel - and this is backed by statistics
People often have greater fears of singular, tragic, catastrophic risks, that may result in many casualties in the same place at the same time, than they do of risks that occur over a longer period of time and are dispersed amongst many people in many different places.
For example, many people are incredibly fearful of being in a plane crash, but not nearly as fearful of heart disease or lung cancer.
Any plane crash that results in 1 or more casualties is a topic that will take priority on the news cycle.
A few reasons - one, they’re incredibly rare. Two, they’re a spectacle to see, even if awful. Three, and most importantly, they’ll get people’s attention.
Instantaneous Fallout (ex. Plane Crash)
Chronic Fallout (ex. Heart Disease)
Nature of Event
Acute, sudden catastrophic, no prior warning
Gradual,develops over many years
Immediate and severe
Slow and progressive
Localized to crash site and immediate surroundings
Widespread and pervasive
Rapid response often involving emergency services and crisis management teams
Unhurried, not immediate, not an emergency. Gradual recommendations by healthcare professionals if monitored.
Less than a few weeks at most
Ongoing and lifelong
Leads public to heightened sense of risk and fear, despite rarity
Viewed as a common health issue that many people have. Less fear when everyone deals with it.
Those with aviophobia often say they’ll prefer driving over flying because they feel safer. This is usually related to the feeling of having control over their direction and outcomes, rather than being in the passenger’s seat and at the mercy of a pilot’s actions.
These anxieties and fears result from several additional factors, including:
People who are in control of a situation have a lower perception of risk than those who do not have control. This fallacy results from the perceived ability to change the outcome of a situation, despite each available action resulting in the same outcome.
Part of feeling safe is understanding how a vehicle, process, or really anything works. Most people are familiar with how a car works and drive one several days out of the week. This familiarity breeds comfort, in turn, reducing perceived risk.
Even for people who ride a bus or travel by subway, these modes of transportation are much simpler and easier to understand than air travel. Again, when these modes of transportation are used frequently, people become accustomed to them and not as fearful.
When it comes to air travel, the process is significantly more complex and less transparent to the average person. Everything from the pre-flight checklist to responding to changing environmental factors in the air is hidden from the passengers, which can create a sense of mystery and apprehension.
This is much more fear-inducing than seeing construction on the road or looking at the speedometer on your dash.
The question we’re looking to answer here is, “Does flying more often increase my chances of being in a plane crash?”
The short answer is, yes it does, but not by much.
If you’re a frequent flier, that does not technically mean that on your next flight you have an increased risk of being in an accident or dying in an air travel accident.
Just because you have flown once or even several times before (and have been in an accident or not), does not increase your risk of being in one on your next flight.
The risk of being in a crash or accident is the same regardless of whether you’ve flown once or a hundred times.
But why is that?
The simple answer is that each flight you take is mutually exclusive from the next one and your last one. The flight you took yesterday does not influence the flight you take today.
Let’s look at a more simple example - a coin flip.
If you flip a coin and it lands on heads, what’s the probability that it will land on heads a second time?
If you said 50/50, you’d be correct.
However, we’re interested in every single one of our coin flips resulting in heads. Or in other words, every flight landing safely and without issue.
This is an entirely different question entirely.
What are the odds of a coin flip being heads 3 times in row?
Using this logic, we apply it to the questions below.
The question we’re looking to answer now is, “If I fly ‘x’ times a year, what’s my risk of dying in an air travel accident?” Where ‘x’ is the number of times you fly in a year.
What we’re differentiating here is the number of trials we’re looking at. Put more simply, these 3 different scenarios:
If you were to board any flight during the year, you’d have a 1 in 292,398 chance of being on an aircraft involved in an accident, regardless of whether you are unharmed, injured, or killed.
As was stated earlier, you have a 1 in 816,545,929 chance of dying in a plane crash, or in other words, a 816,545,928 in 816,545,929 chance of not dying in a plane crash, aka the desired outcome.
‘X’ is the number of trials or flights you’d want to look at. Assume you’re going to fly 4 times over the next year and you want to know what your chances of being injured or dying are.
Since your chance of dying is 1 in 816,545,929, we know that your chance of not dying is 816,545,928.
Thus, we will take (The odds of NOT dying in a plane crash / The total population)^x.
So, (816,545,928 / 816,545,929)^4 = 99.999999510% of not dying in your next 4 flights.
In other words, you have a 1 in 204,136,489 chance of dying within those next 4 flights.
To calculate this, we would need to know the number of times you’ll fly within your lifetime.
So unless you book your flights out really, really far in advance, we don’t have a known number of trials to work with. Thus, we’ll make a few estimations.
In this case, it’s better to take a few situational examples. Odds are, you fall into one of the below categories.
For those that have never flown before, we’ll assume you’ll rarely travel in the future, maybe a few more times in your life. Let’s say 6, so 3 more round trips. You have a 99.99999927% chance of never dying in a plane crash.
For the infrequent flier, you may fly maybe 60 more times in your life, 30 more round trips. You have a 99.9999265% chance of never dying in a plane crash.
For the frequent work traveler, let’s assume you’ll fly 200 more times in your life, 100 more round trips. You have a 99.99997551% chance of never dying in a plane crash.
For most people, a ‘plane crash’ is an airplane descending from the sky into the ocean or wilderness. The plane hits the surface and bursts into flames.
Unfortunately, a better definition is needed and that’s why the National Transportation Safety Board specifies something different entirely.
“Accidents” and “incidents,” are the terms the NTSB uses, both of which are further grouped under “occurrences”
Per the NTSB, “Generally, accidents and incidents differ only in the degree of injury sustained by persons involved or in damage sustained to the aircraft. Each category has a unique name and identifier to permit common coding in accident/incident systems, a text definition, and usage notes to clarify the category and aid in coding occurrences.”
For example, American Eagle Flight 4125, was considered an accident by the NTSB. We can speculate that it would be reasonable for those aboard the flight to say, “the plane crashed off the runaway.” While this is true, this example illustrates how varying definitions can skew one’s perception of the occurrence. In reality, the plane landed, but then slid off the runway with one of the wings tipping and digging into the ground. No one was killed or injured in the event.
The chances of a large, commercial airplane carrier crashing is essentially 0.
Time period of all data:
January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2020
Total accidents resulting in at least 1 fatality:
1 Crash / 98,610,240 Departures = 0.000001%
Asiana Airlines Flight 214 is the only accident that would generally be considered a "crash." In the downward descent to land, the plane struck the seawall.
1 in 816,545,929 chance of you specifically, dying in a plane crash
Time period of all data:
January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2020
Total Passengers (US Air Carriers):
5 total fatalities / 4,082,729,647 = 0.0000001225% or a 1 in every 816,545,929 passengers.
The 16 fatalities classified under ‘Commuter Carrier’ were removed from this calculation. This is for two reasons. For one, the overwhelming majority of these fatalities occurred in rural parts of Alaska on smaller Cessna aircraft that, while technically are ‘Commuter Carriers’, are not the typical aircraft the majority of travelers will be on in the United States. Secondly, upon querying of NTSB data, 3 of these fatalities are not accounted for. NTSB #’s included in this analysis are: ANC15FA049, ANC16FA061, ANC17MA001, DCA18MA142, ANC19FA019, DCA20MA002, ANC20FA017. Upon review of the number of annual passengers, there is not a clear distinction as to what categories of aircraft are included in the summations. This analysis assumes it includes Major U.S. Air Carriers and Commuter Carriers.
1 in 260,256 chance of simply being involved in an accident (which includes any plane crashes), unharmed, injured, or killed.
Time period of all data:
January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2020
211 departures / 54,914,000 = 0.000384% or 1 in every 260,259
I was able to cross-reference and verify 184 of these accidents for the same period in the NTSB’s public database.
It is not clear if the BTS counts an accident involving two planes (ex. Bumping into one another on the runway) as a single accident or two accidents. It appears that the NTSB counts this as a single accident, which may account for some of the discrepancy.
Using the CAROL database on the NTSB, here’s the filter:
Event Date: Between 1/1/2015 to 12/31/2020
Country: USA
Aircraft Category: Airplane
Scheduled: Scheduled
Event Type: Accident
Purpose of Flight: NOT Personal.
1 in 6,864,250 chance of being on a plane involved in an accident that results in at least 1 fatality.
Time period of all data:
January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2020
Total accidents resulting in at least 1 fatality:
8 accidents with at least 1 fatality / 54,914,000 = 0.000015% or 1 in every 6,864,250
I was able to cross-reference and verify the 8 accidents that resulted in at least 1 fatality for the same period in the NTSB’s public database.
Using the CAROL database on the NTSB, here’s the filter:
Event Date: Between 1/1/2015 to 12/31/2020
Aircraft Category: Airplane
Event Type: Accident
Purpose of Flight: NOT Personal.
The NTSB numbers are:
Generally, air travel is very safe, especially when compared to other modes of transportation.
For every 1,000,000 miles you travel in a car, statistically, you can expect to be in about 4.5 crashes. For every 100,000 flights you take on a US Carrier (i.e. Delta, United, American, etc.), statistically, you can expect to be involved in about 1.05 accidents.
Luckily, with agencies like the Federal Aviation Administration and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, there is plenty of reliable data that gives us an insight into how we get from Point A to Point B, with some that go as far back as 1960.
What makes a flight ‘safe’? Given the data the BTS provides, someone could loosely categorize a safe flight as one that:
Our definition of ‘safe’ somewhat aligns with the FAA definition of an ‘Aircraft Accident.’ The only difference is that the FAA will count an event as an accident if the aircraft receives substantial damage, despite no one being injured and killed.
For example, a pilot overshoots the runway because of bad weather conditions. The plane lands, and no one on board is injured or killed, although the plane is significantly damaged. This would be counted as an accident.
From 2015 to 2020, between passenger cars and trucks (light + large), there were 62,101,894 total crashes and 14,533,165 total injuries. For the same time period, commercial US air carriers had a total of 176 total accidents and 111 total injuries.
It is extremely rare for a plane to crash, which is precisely the reason why we feel as if we often see it in the news. Out of the estimated 8.5M departures that occur annually (2015 to 2020 average), roughly 42.5M cumulatively over that time period, there were only 176 total accidents - a 0.000414% accident per departure rate.
Unfortunately, the BTS does not provide an estimated “annual departure,” number for passenger cars or trucks. It’d be nearly impossible to collect data on that. We cannot make an ‘apples to apples’ comparison for this.
The closest comparison we can make is by looking at the average number of crashes for cars and trucks combined, which, from 2015 to 2020, on average was, 451.89 per 100,000,000 vehicle miles, or 4.5 crashes per 1,000,000 miles.
Assuming you drive the standard 15,000 miles per year starting at age 16, it’ll take you approximately 67 years to drive 1,000,000 miles. Between the age of 16 and 83, you are statistically expected to be in about 4.5 crashes. Compared to 1.05 accidents for every 100,000 flights, you’d need to be on a flight every week for the next 1,923 years before being involved in an accident.
However, we never hear about the accidents in cars or trucks because they’re so common and rarely make for a sensational headline.
Flying on a US Air Carrier is extremely safe. For ease of reading, ‘US Air Carrier’ will be used interchangeably with ‘large commercial airplane'.’
You would need to board and depart on approximately 294,000 flights before you’re even involved in a single accident. To ever be seriously injured on a large commercial airplane, you would need to depart on approximately 476,000 flights. The risk of being killed is even lower. You would need to depart on close to 10,000,000 flights before becoming a fatality.
To further put that in perspective, you would need to take a single flight every single day for the next 274 years to reach 100,000 flights.
The above statements are based on 2015 to 2020 flight data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. We look at accidents, serious injuries, and fatalities per departure since the majority of recordable events take place upon take off or landing, and rarely mid-flight.
For Commuter Air Carrier services, the numbers are slightly higher. You would need to depart on approximately 95,000 flights before being in an accident and approximately 181,000 before being seriously injured or killed.
What is defined as a Commuter Air Carrier?
According to the US Department of Transportation, as defined under section 298.2(e) it is an air carrier which:
These are typically smaller organizations that have several set routes to popular destinations. In the United States, JSX, Grant Aviation, and Boutique Air are examples of Commuter Air Carriers.
For US on-demand air taxis, the frequency of fatalities is higher than US commercial airlines and similar to US commuter air carriers. You would need to depart on approximately 181,000 flights before being killed. Data related to accidents and serious injuries on on-demand air taxis is not available.
What is defined as an 'air taxi' ?
According to the US Department of Transportation, an air-taxi operator is defined as, “not a commuter air carrier, do not participate in interline agreements, and do not engage in foreign air transportation.”
For the purposes of sorting through NTSB data, these are categorized as "non-scheduled" flights. As in, these do not have regular routes that people may purchase a ticket on. Rather, these are chartered flights.
Traveling via a large commercial airline is by far safer than a car. Since many people also travel via truck (ex. Chevy Silverado), which can be above or below the 6,000lb specification, data for light and large trucks is also included below.
Between 2015 and 2020, for passenger cars, there were:
For the same time period, for light and large trucks, there were:
Between 2015 and 2020, amongst large commercial airlines, there were:
While the numbers show there were significantly less accidents, injuries, and fatalities for commercial airlines vs passenger cars or trucks, it’s difficult to make any conclusions because the pool of people that drive cars and trucks is significantly higher than those that fly. Therefore, we must look at some specific rates.
For cars and trucks combined:
This means that for all the cars and trucks on the road in the United States, when you add up the miles they each individually drive, there will be approximately 452 crashes, 107 injuries, and 1 fatality for every 100,000,000 miles driven.
The average person drives 15,000 miles a year so it will take him or her about 67 years to drive 1,000,000 miles. That means the average person will be in about 4.5 crashes, and experience 1 serious injury in his or her lifetime while driving.
If someone were to drive 100,000,000 miles in his or her lifetime, only then would the probability of dying drastically increase.
For large commercial airlines only (no commuter air carriers or air taxis)::
This means that for all departing flights in the United States, there are 34 accidents, 21 serious injuries, and 1 fatality for every 1,000,000 departures.
However, this doesn’t paint the full picture. Because of how regulated commercial flying is, we have access to data that also shows the following:
